Rebuilding the Berlin Wall
Monday 7th June 1999
A Kosovo peace deal comes and goes. Expect more of the same, for while the
"peace deal" involves Kosovo remaining part of Serbia or Kosovo becoming
independent of Serbia it will be unworkable. A partition is the only solution.
For it is the powers of east and west which are the squabbling parties here.
The politcal line that demarcates east and west is what is underpins the
resolution of this conflict.
The ongoing bombing of Serbian forces by NATO is clearly not working (yet?)
if the Milosovic et al are still prepared to quibble. They would rather the
bombing continue than sign to an agreed peace deal, if it involves
unaccaptable conditions. That is, conditions more unacceptable than continued
bombing.
What are these unacceptable conditions? Fundamentally, it comes down to
the "slicing of the pie". The "who gets what" issue. Territory and resources.
But it aint what Serbian leaders want that is at heart, and nor is it what the KLA
wants neither. It's NATO and Russia.
NATO wants the full retreat of Serbian forces from Kosovo, with NATO and
Russian troops to keep the peace. The Russians are saying their troops
would not be under NATO command. And I bet they don't want an independent Kosovo.
They want a Kosovo that is part of Serbia, with Russian peace keepers. NATO would
be a guest peace keeping force. NATO would, ofcourse, prefer the reverse.
A compromise is the only way. A dirty big line in the sand, where Serbia is on one
side and a new independent Kosovo slice is on the other. The Russians and NATO will
then keep the peace, which is code for saying, they will monitor that the line doth
shift no more.
Ofcourse, post Berlin wall geo-politics will demand a new rhetoric to hide the
clear regression to a classic stand-off situation. Let us follow the news and
watch this language unfold before us.
This is why NATO hasn't sent in ground troops. That would make it a war with
Russia. The west doesn't give two hoots what Serbia would think if we sent
in troops. It is Russia to whom some feared respect is due. We can bomb Serbian
forces and resources for as long as we are prepared to underwrite the action,
because it is only an annoyance to Serbia and Kosovo. Once we sent in troops to
set up camp and "claim territory", we enter a new game.
And we have to damn well make sure that we have a "peace deal" with Russia before
we do that.
end of rant.
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